Surgical factors play a critical role in predicting functional outcomes using machine learning in robotic‐assisted total knee arthroplasty

Abstract Purpose Predictive models help determine predictive factors necessary to improve functional outcomes after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). However, no study has assessed predictive models for functional outcomes after TKA based on the new concepts of personalised surgery and new technologies. This study aimed to develop and evaluate predictive modelling approaches to predict the achievement of minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in patient‐reported outcome measures (PROMs) 1 year after TKA. Methods Four hundred thirty robotic‐assisted TKAs were analysed in this retrospective study. The mean age was 67.9 ± 7.9 years; the mean body mass index (BMI) was 32.0 ± 6.8 kg/m 2 . The following PROMs were collected preoperatively and 1‐year postoperatively: knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome score for joint replacement, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities osteoarthritis index (WOMAC) Function, WOMAC Pain. Demographic data, preoperative CT scan, implant size, implant position on the robotic system and characteristics of the joint replacement procedure were selected as predictive variables. Four machine learning algorithms were trained to predict the MCID status at 1‐year post‐TKA for each PROM survey. ‘No MCID’ was chosen as the target. Models were evaluated by class discrimination (F1‐score) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC‐AUC). Results The best‐performing model was ridge logistic regression for WOMAC Function (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.80, F1 = 0.48, sensitivity = 0.79, specificity = 0.62). Variables most strongly contributing to not achieving MCID status were preoperative PROMs, high BMI and femoral resection depth (posterior and distal), supporting functional positioning principles. Conversely, variables contributing to a positive outcome (achieving MCID) were medial/lateral alignment of the tibial component, whether the procedure was an outpatient surgery and whether the patient received managed Medicare insurance. Conclusion The most predictive variables included preoperative PROMs, BMI and surgical planning. The surgical predictive variables were valgus femoral alignment and femoral rotation, reflecting the benefits of personalised surgery. Including surgical variables in predictive models for functional outcomes after TKA should guide clinical and surgical decision‐making for every patient. Level of Evidence Level III.