Perceived peer delinquency, proactive criminal thinking, neighborhood disorder, and serious offending: moderated mediation and theoretical integration

This paper illustrates how theoretical integration in criminology might be achieved, in part, through the use of such research methodologies as mediation and moderation. Analyzing data from the first three waves of the National Youth Survey (N = 1725, 53.2% male, mean age = 13.87 years), the current study utilized a moderated mediation methodology to test whether neighborhood disorder moderates the peer influence effect. In this study, peer influence was defined as a mediated relationship running from peer delinquency (Peer) to proactive criminal thinking (PCT) to serious offending. The simple mediated relationship was evaluated first and found to be significant. Moderated mediation analysis then revealed that neighborhood disorder moderated the effect of peer delinquency on PCT (a path of the indirect effect) and of PCT on serious offending (b path of the indirect effect). Consistent with predictions, the a path interaction was negative and the b path interaction was positive, although the indirect effect was significant at all levels of neighborhood disorder. These findings indicate that neighborhood disorder may suppress, though not eliminate, the effect of delinquent peers on PCT, while enhancing the effect of PCT on serious offending.