统计
泊松分布
贝叶斯概率
泊松回归
肺癌
数学
广义线性模型
随机效应模型
计量经济学
计算机科学
医学
肿瘤科
内科学
人口
荟萃分析
环境卫生
作者
Verena Jürgens,Silvia Ess,Thomas Cerny,Penelope Vounatsou
摘要
Age-period-cohort (APC) models are the state of art in cancer projections, assessing past and recent trends and extrapolating mortality or incidence data into the future. Nordpred is a well-established software, assuming a Poisson distribution for the counts and a log-link or power-link function with fixed power; however, its predictive performance is poor for sparse data. Bayesian models with log-link function have been applied, but they can lead to extreme estimates. In this paper, we address criticisms of the aforementioned models by providing Bayesian formulations based on a power-link and develop a generalized APC power-link model, which assumes a random rather than fixed power parameter. In addition, a power model with a fixed power parameter of five was formulated in the Bayesian framework. The predictive performance of the new models was evaluated on Swiss lung cancer mortality data using model-based estimates of observed periods. Results indicated that the generalized APC power-link model provides best estimates for male and female lung cancer mortality. The gender-specific models were further applied to project lung cancer mortality in Switzerland during the periods 2009-2013 and 2014-2018.
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