Global Trends and Drivers in Consumption- and Income-Based Emissions of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a class of the most hazardous substances. As unavoidable byproducts of petrogenic and pyrogenic processes, their emissions are dominantly linked to various economic sectors. In international trade, not only final consumption but also primary input can transfer the emissions among regions. Therefore, a long-term impact assessment of the international trade on PAH global emissions based on the final consumption and primary input could significantly benefit worldwide PAH mitigation strategies. This study investigated the changes in consumption- and income-based PAH emissions and interregional flows of worldwide regions, using the latest available data from 1999 to 2014. Results show that in 2014, 16.8 and 10.1% of global PAH emissions were transferred by consumption and primary input through international trade. Meanwhile, the production-, consumption-, and income-based emissions in most regions were decreasing. Furthermore, from the consumption-based perspective, sub-Saharan Africa surpassed China and became the largest net exporter of consumption-based emissions. From the income-based perspective, the net income-based outflows of India and the rest of Asia increased significantly, indicating the income-based emission leakage in emerging markets. From the socioeconomic perspective, emission intensity dominated the global decline in PAH emissions. As the two main factors driving the increase in emissions, the primary input structure (41%) had a larger effect than the final demand level (28%) from 1999 to 2014. Therefore, global cooperation, through the mitigation strategies of reducing emission factors and improving international trade patterns, is posited as an efficient strategy to reduce PAH pollution and related health risks.