Quantitative Analysis of Natural and Human Factors of Oasis Change in the Tail of Shiyang River over the Past 60 Years

Abstract The human and natural factors complicit in the driving forces of oasis change have always received considerable interest from the international research community. In this study, we used principal component analysis of natural and socioeconomic statistical factors to quantitatively analyze the causal relationships and their contributions to the observed periodic expansion or shrinkage of the Minqin Oasis over almost 60 years. Our results show that human factors were the dominant factors governing expansion or shrinkage, with average contributions of 69.38% and 76.16%, respectively. Moreover, policy decisions have been the pivotal human factors. Under the influence of various policies, we have found that water resource utilization, land reclamation, population explosion, ecological protection and economic development have each played leading roles in different periods. This study provides a scientific basis for modelling the dynamics of an oasis for sustainable management.