Balancing growth and safety: Investigating urban sprawl's impacts on security resilience under new infrastructure development

In the realm of urban development, the issue of Urban Sprawl (USL) is increasingly being recognized as a significant externality, profoundly influencing Urban Safety Resilience (USR). This study addresses the dearth of research on the implications of USL within the context of New Infrastructure (NI) development and its impact on USR. Using panel data from 259 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2020, an USR index was constructed, encompassing social, infrastructure, economic, and environmental components. Applying the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and panel threshold models, the study thoroughly examines the influences of USL and NI on USR. The findings reveal a significant negative correlation between USL and USR, while NI contributes positively to USR with a time-lagged effect. These results are robust across stability tests. Furthermore, the study uncovers a double threshold effect of USL on USR, with NI acting as the threshold variable. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the central and western regions of China experience a stronger negative impact of USL on USR. This research provides valuable theoretical insights into the relationship between USL and USR, offering guidelines for promoting safer urban development.