Prediction and Index Decomposition of Suitable Arable Land Quantity in Guangyuan City

[Objective] The study was to provide the basis for the protection of regional farmland.[Method] With 3 methods such as the total supply amount method, and food demand method,grey model,the suitable arable land quantity in Guangyuan City in 2020 was predicted.The analytic hierarchy process was taken to decompose the index of the suitable arable land quantity.[Result] According to the demand of regional social economic development and the related state police,total supply amount method could predict and measure a suitable arable land quantity,and it was superior to the grey model and food demand method.Its prediction of the suitable arable land quantity in 2020 was 334 099.98 hm2.According the identified index,their weight values were determined.The indexes of the suitable arable land quantity were decomposed.The county with the biggest suitable arable land quantity was Cangxi and Jiange.Their suitable arable land quantity was 72 013.03,64 908.60 hm2 resp.,being 22.30% and 20.10% of suitable arable land quantity in total city.The county with the least suitable arable land quantity was Chaotian region and its suitable arable land quantity was 24 219.63 hm2 and it was only 7.50% of suitable arable land quantity in total City.[Conclusion] The distribution scheme of the suitable arable land quantity in 2020 in Guangyan City was obtained.