Risk-weighted apoB: a novel summary metric outperforming traditional lipid biomarkers in predicting coronary heart disease

Abstract Background and Aims LDL-C and non-HDL-C do not fully capture coronary heart disease (CHD) risk attributed to all apoB-containing lipoproteins. Use of apolipoprotein B (apoB) as a marker of total atherogenic particle number improves risk prediction, but risk may still be underestimated when triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (TRL/remnants) and lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] are elevated. The aim was to formulate a new metric—risk-weighted apoB (RW-apoB)—designed to capture risk from LDL, TRL/remnants, and Lp(a) in a single number. Methods Based on previously published estimates of the relative atherogenicity of LDL, TRL/remnant, and Lp(a) particles, RW-apoB was developed (using UK Biobank data) as an atherogenicity-weighted apoB-sum calculated as: RW-apoB = 11.65×TG(mmol/L) + 0.215×lipoprotein(a)(nmol/L) + 0.736×apoB(mg/dL). Results Assigning RW-apoB to individuals substantially reclassified their risk status. Compared with ranking by measured apoB, 52% of individuals were up- or down-ranked by ≥10 percentiles. About one-third of those in the top RW-apoB quintile—with elevated TRL and Lp(a) and a CHD event rate of 5.4%—were misclassified as lower risk by apoB. Conversely, individuals in the top measured apoB quintile but with low TRL and Lp(a) had a lower event rate (3.9%) and were correctly down-ranked. RW-apoB improved risk prediction, significantly increasing Harrell’s C-index relative to apoB (P < .0001). In statin-treated subjects, RW-apoB was potentially a better index of residual risk. RW-apoB consistently outperformed apoB as a risk predictor in Cox models across the UK Biobank and three other large population cohorts. Conclusions RW-apoB represents not only particle number but also accounts for the higher atherogenicity of TRL and Lp(a). It offers clinically meaningful improvements in CHD risk stratification.