The Future Potential Distribution and Sustainable Management of Ancient Pu’er Tea Trees (Camellia sinensis var. assamica (J. W. Mast.) Kitam.)

Ancient Pu’er tea trees (Camellia sinensis var. assamica (J. W. Mast.) Kitam.) are an important ecological resource with high economic value. Knowledge of the environmental variables shaping the original distribution and the effects of climate change on the future potential distribution of these trees, as well as the identification of sustainable management approaches, is essential for ensuring their future health and production. Here, we used 28 current environmental variables and the future climate data to model the suitable areas for ancient Pu’er tea trees. We also compared the health of these ancient trees in areas under different local management strategies. The results suggested the general distribution is likely to remain stable, but there are environmentally suitable areas outside its current habitats. To achieve more sustainable management, the main areas in which the management of poorly-managed trees can be improved include learning from managers of well-managed trees and following the common technical management regulations stipulated by the local government. The suitable value ranges for environmental factors, potentially suitable areas under climate change, and assessment of management approaches will aid the future cultivation and transplantation of ancient Pu’er tea trees. The methodology includes management-level analysis and provides practical insights that could be applied to regions outside the most suitable areas identified.