Analysis of the characteristics of storm surge increase in Macau in recent years and empirical forecast of storm surge

Macau is the core city of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In recent years, the number of strong typhoons in Macau has been increasing due to the influence of climate change, and the losses from storm surge disasters have been devastating in recent years. Accurate and sufficiently time-sensitive storm surge forecasting is one of the important elements to prevent and mitigate coastal flood disasters. Based on data of typhoon and the tidal level in Macau in the past 50 years, this study establishes a single-station forecasting formula for the Macau inner harbor station by separated storm surge and astronomical tide through harmonic analysis, and analyzing its surge characteristics and conducting empirical statistical forecast analysis to mitigate the storm surge disaster in the Macau region.