蒸汽压差
环境科学
生产力
降水
气候变化
气候学
全球变暖
产量(工程)
大气科学
水分
经济
气象学
地理
生态学
生物
植物
光合作用
材料科学
蒸腾作用
地质学
冶金
宏观经济学
作者
Jarrod Kath,Alessandro Craparo,Youyi Fong,Vivekananda Byrareddy,Aaron P. Davis,Rachel King,Thong Nguyen‐Huy,Piet J.A. van Asten,Torben Marcussen,Shahbaz Mushtaq,Roger Stone,Scott B. Power
出处
期刊:Nature food
[Springer Nature]
日期:2022-10-13
卷期号:3 (10): 871-880
被引量:10
标识
DOI:10.1038/s43016-022-00614-8
摘要
Our understanding of the impact of climate change on global coffee production is largely based on studies focusing on temperature and precipitation, but other climate indicators could trigger critical threshold changes in productivity. Here, using generalized additive models and threshold regression, we investigate temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) effects on global Arabica coffee productivity. We show that VPD during fruit development is a key indicator of global coffee productivity, with yield declining rapidly above 0.82 kPa. The risk of exceeding this threshold rises sharply for most countries we assess, if global warming exceeds 2 °C. At 2.9 °C, countries making up 90% of global supply are more likely than not to exceed the VPD threshold. The inclusion of VPD and the identification of thresholds appear critical for understanding climate change impacts on coffee and for the design of adaptation strategies.
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