Trends and projections in cutaneous melanoma death in the Netherlands from 1950 to 2045

Child sun protection has recently been linked to the future disappearance of fatal melanoma in adults in successive generations. In the Netherlands, however, mortality rates from melanoma have increased gradually from the 1950s, with some indication of stabilisation since 2010, which may be compatible with a birth cohort effect by sun-protective measures and screening. To study the trajectories ahead a trend analysis was applied. Numbers of people with cutaneous melanoma as underlying cause of death from 1950 to 2018 and population data were derived from Statistics Netherlands. A graphical approach was used to explore trends in mortality by age, calendar period, and cohorts born in the successive periods of 1889 to 1979. Age-period-cohort modelling outcomes and population forecasts provided projections of mortality until 2045. Based on 24,151 cases of melanoma death (13,256 men, 10,895 women), age-standardised mortality rates were similar from 1950 to 1989 for both genders, and increased thereafter more in men. The age-curve patterns changed gradually towards higher death rates at older age, implying the existence of a birth cohort effect. The age-period-cohort models showed an increase in melanoma mortality rates in successive generations. For women, the birth cohort effect plateaued for generations born since the mid-1980s. The projected total mortality number was predicted to rise in the next 3 decades.It is concluded that a small future decline of mortality in younger generations can be expected in the Netherlands, but mortality is still rising for the total population.