Statistical Estimation Monte Carlo for Unreliability Evaluation of Highly Reliable System

Based on analog Monte Carlo simulation, statistical Monte Carlo methods for unreliable evaluation of highly reliable system are constructed, including direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo method and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo method. The basal element is given, and the statistical estimation Monte Carlo eslimators are derived. Direct Monte Carlo simulation method, bounding sampling method, forced transitions Monte Carlo method, direct statistical estimation Monte Carlo and weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo are used to evaluate unreliability of a same system. By comparing, weighted statistical estimation Monte Carlo estimator has smallest variance, and has highest calculating efficiency.