Progress towards measles elimination in Zhejiang

Objective To evaluate the progress towards measles elimination in Zhejiang province by mathematical model and provide basis for the future development of control strategies.Methods We collected the measles incidence surveillance data of 2006-2009 in Zhejiang province.The models of index curve and seasonal trend were applied to simulate the incidence rate and seasonal pattern of measles for the year of 2009-2012.Results The average residual incidence rate of measles was ranged between-0.248/Lakh and 0.463/Lakh calculated by seasonal model.There were 13 weeks that had the actual incidence rates of measles out of the range in 2009.However,the difference was very small(0.0002/Lakh-0.0209/Lakh).To achieve the goal of eliminating measles in 2012,the target incidence of last week should be controlled under 0.00048/Lakh.The values of alert and action need to be 0.00168/Lakh and 0.00228/Lakh respectively.Conclusion The results of incidence curve and seasonal trend models are close to the actual incidence rate of measles in 2009 in Zhejiang province.It might be applicable for monitoring the progress of measles elimination.