Stormy sales: the influence of weather expectations on FMCG consumption

Purpose This study aims to understand the impact of extreme weather events on fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) consumption and to examine the role of anticipated product scarcity and FMCG types on such behavior. Design/methodology/approach This paper conducted five studies, combining archival data analysis with behavioral experiments. The archival data included sales data from a supermarket chain and weather data from the National Weather Service. The experiments were designed to test the effect of extreme weather cues on consumption, the psychological mechanism behind this effect and moderators. Findings This research found that consumers’ anticipation of extreme weather events significantly increases their consumption of FMCGs. This research further discovered that these behaviors are driven by anticipated product scarcity and moderated by consumers’ altruisms and FMCG types. Research limitations/implications Limitations of the research include the reliance on reported sales data and self-reported measures, which could introduce biases. The authors also primarily focused on extreme weather events, leaving other types of disasters unexplored. Furthermore, cultural differences in disaster response might influence results, yet the studies do not fully address these nuances. Despite these limitations, the findings provide critical insights for FMCG retailers and policymakers, suggesting strategies for managing demand surges during disasters. Moreover, understanding consumer behavior under impending disasters could inform intervention strategies, potentially mitigating panic buying and helping ensure equitable resource distribution. Last, these findings encourage further exploration of environmental influences on consumer behavior. Practical implications The findings have practical implications for products, brand managers and retailers in managing stock levels and product distribution during disasters. Furthermore, understanding the psychological mechanisms of these behaviors could inform policymakers’ designs of public interventions for equitable resource allocation during extreme weather events. Social implications The research provides significant social implications by highlighting how extreme weather events impact FMCG consumption. This understanding can guide public policymakers in creating efficient disaster management plans. Specifically, anticipating surges in FMCG purchases can inform policies for maintaining price stability and preventing resource shortages, mitigating societal stress during crises. Moreover, these findings encourage public education around responsible purchasing during disasters, potentially reducing panic buying. By collaborating with FMCG manufacturers and retailers, governments can ensure a steady supply of essentials during extreme weather events. Thus, the research can play a crucial role in enhancing societal resilience in the face of impending disasters. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to integrate the impact of extreme weather events on consumption behavior with the psychological theory of anticipated product scarcity. The unique focus on FMCGs offers a novel perspective on consumer behavior literature.