Improving soil organic carbon mapping in farmlands using machine learning models and complex cropping system information

Abstract Obtaining accurate spatial maps of soil organic carbon (SOC) in farmlands is crucial for assessing soil quality and achieving precision agriculture. The cropping system is an important factor that affects the soil carbon cycle in farmlands, and different agricultural managements under different cropping systems lead to spatial heterogeneity of SOC. However, current research often ignores differences in the main controlling factors of SOC under different cropping systems, especially when the cropping pattern is complex, which is not conducive to farmland zoning management. This study aims to (i) obtain the spatial distribution map of six cropping systems by using multi-phase HJ-CCD satellite images; (ii) explore the stratified heterogeneous relationship between SOC and environmental variables under different cropping systems by using the Cubist model; and (iii) predict the spatial map of SOC. The Xiantao, Tianmen, and Qianjiang cities, which are the core agricultural areas of the Jianghan Plain, were selected as the study area. Results showed that the SOC content in rice–wheat rotation was the highest among the six cropping systems. The Cubist model outperformed random forest, ordinary kriging, and multiple linear regression in SOC mapping. The results of the Cubist model showed that cropping system, climate, soil attributes, and vegetation index were important influencing factors of SOC in farmlands. The main controlling factors of SOC under different cropping systems were different. Specifically, summer crop types had a greater influence on spatial variations in SOC than winter crops. Paddy–upland rotation was more affected by river distance and NDVI, while upland–upland rotation was more affected by irrigation-related factors. This work highlights the differentiated main controlling factors of SOC under different cropping systems and provides data support for farmland zoning management. The Cubist model can improve the prediction accuracy of SOC under complex cropping systems.