Efficient Calibration/Uncertainty Analysis Using Paired Complex/Surrogate Models

The use of detailed groundwater models to simulate complex environmental processes can be hampered by (1) long run-times and (2) a penchant for solution convergence problems. Collectively, these can undermine the ability of a modeler to reduce and quantify predictive uncertainty, and therefore limit the use of such detailed models in the decision-making context. We explain and demonstrate a novel approach to calibration and the exploration of posterior predictive uncertainty, of a complex model, that can overcome these problems in many modelling contexts. The methodology relies on conjunctive use of a simplified surrogate version of the complex model in combination with the complex model itself. The methodology employs gradient-based subspace analysis and is thus readily adapted for use in highly parameterized contexts. In its most basic form, one or more surrogate models are used for calculation of the partial derivatives that collectively comprise the Jacobian matrix. Meanwhile, testing of parameter upgrades and the making of predictions is done by the original complex model. The methodology is demonstrated using a density-dependent seawater intrusion model in which the model domain is characterized by a heterogeneous distribution of hydraulic conductivity.