Study of Application of Time Series Model in Grain Yield Predition

the food forecast is very important for grain production, adjusting the important theoretical basis for grain planting structure, making the food security and agricultural sustainable development strategy. In order to solve the insufficiency of the traditional model selection criteria in practical application, the relationship between the quantity of consumption and time, time series forecasting models of food grain consumption per capita in China. The results showed that, two timing the predictive fitting statistical index model is highly significant, by applying the model to the data of inside forecast more accurate prediction results, but because of many influence factors, its accuracy to be tested time and actual.