Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Coupling Coordination Among China’s Digital Economy, Carbon Emissions Efficiency, and High-Quality Economic Development

Grounded in coupling theory, this study investigates the interplay among three key elements of economic growth, namely the digital economy, carbon emissions efficiency, and high-quality economic development. Drawing on data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2023, we employ exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis and the GeoDetector model to examine the spatial–temporal evolution and underlying driving forces of coupling coordination. This research enriches the theoretical framework of multi-system synergistic development in a green transition context and offers empirical insights and policy recommendations for fostering regional coordination and sustainable development. The results reveal that (1) both the digital economy and high-quality economic development show a steady upward trend, while carbon emissions efficiency has a “U-shaped” curve pattern; (2) at the national level, the degree of coupling coordination has evolved over time from “mild disorder” to “on the verge of disorder” to “barely coordinated,” while at the regional level, this pattern of coupling coordination shifts over time from “Eastern–Northeastern–Central–Western” to “Eastern–Central–Northeastern–Western”; (3) although spatial polarization in coupling coordination has improved, disparities fluctuate in a “decline–rise” pattern, with interregional differences being the main source of that variation; (4) the degree of coupling coordination has a positive spatial correlation, but with a declining trend with fluctuations; and (5) improvements in the level of economic development, human capital, industrial structure, green technological innovation, and market development capacity all contribute positively to coupling coordination. Among them, green technological innovation and market development capacity are the most influential drivers, and the interactions among all driving factors further enhance their collective impact.