A Mathematical Model for Predicting Patient Responses to Combined Radiotherapy with CTLA-4 Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

The purpose of this study was to develop a cell-cell interaction model that could predict a tumor's response to radiotherapy (RT) combined with CTLA-4 immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The previously developed model was extended by adding a new term representing tremelimumab, an inhibitor of CTLA-4. The distribution of the new immune activation term was derived from the results of a clinical trial for tremelimumab monotherapy (NCT01008358). The proposed model successfully reproduced longitudinal tumor diameter changes in HCC patients treated with tremelimumab (complete response = 0%, partial response = 17.6%, stable disease = 58.8%, and progressive disease = 23.6%). For the non-irradiated tumor control group, adding ICI to RT increased the clinical benefit rate from 8% to 32%. The simulation predicts that it is beneficial to start CTLA-4 blockade before RT in terms of treatment sequences. We developed a mathematical model that can predict the response of patients to the combined CTLA-4 blockade with radiation therapy. We anticipate that the developed model will be helpful for designing clinical trials with the ultimate aim of maximizing the efficacy of ICI-RT combination therapy.