Assessment and prediction of net carbon emission from fishery in Liaoning Province based on eco-economic system simulation

The fishery eco-economic system has multiple economic-ecological-social values, and the marine fishery has the dual characteristics of "carbon source" and "carbon sink"; net carbon emissions are essential to agricultural production activities' carbon emissions. This is a breakthrough in achieving the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.” This study defines the connotation of the fishery eco-economic system and innovatively proposes to combine the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method with the SD model to construct a dynamic model of net carbon emission of the fishery eco-economic system in Liaoning. In this study, the main drivers of carbon emissions from fishery were investigated by using the LMDI method, the net carbon emissions from the marine fishery in Liaoning Province from 2005 to 2020 were estimated by using a system dynamics model from the perspective of fishery ecosystem, and a multi-scenario projection of net carbon emissions from fisheries from 2021-2040 was made. The results show that: (1) The energy structure and energy intensity have a negative inhibitory effect on carbon emissions, and the fishery economy and the fishery population have a favorable driving effect on carbon emissions. (2) During 2005–2020, carbon emissions from fishery reached a maximum of 2.5×105t in 2010 and began to decline after that. Carbon emissions from marine fishing account for 60% of the total carbon emissions. (3) Across the five forecast scenarios from 2021 to 2040, rapid economic growth significantly affects carbon emissions growth, reducing energy use in fisheries through technological advancements helps to reduce carbon emissions, and increasing shellfish and algal production simultaneously increases carbon sinks.