Multi-cohort validation of Ascore: an anoikis-based prognostic signature for predicting disease progression and immunotherapy response in bladder cancer

Abstract Bladder cancer ranks as the 10th most common cancer worldwide, with deteriorating prognosis as the disease advances. While immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have shown promise in clinical therapy in both operable and advanced bladder cancer, identifying patients who will respond is challenging. Anoikis, a specialized form of cell death that occurs when cells detach from the extracellular matrix, is closely linked to tumor progression. Here, we aimed to explore the anoikis-based biomarkers for bladder cancer prognosis and immunotherapeutic decisions. Through consensus clustering, we categorized patients from the TCGA-BLCA cohort into two clusters based on anoikis-related genes (ARGs). Significant differences in survival outcome, clinical features, tumor immune environment (TIME), and potential ICIs response were observed between clusters. We then formulated a four-gene signature, termed "Ascore", to encapsulate this gene expression pattern. The Ascore was found to be closely associated with survival outcome and served as an independent prognosticator in both the TCGA-BLCA cohort and the IMvigor210 cohort. It also demonstrated superior predictive capacity (AUC = 0.717) for bladder cancer immunotherapy response compared to biomarkers like TMB and PD-L1. Finally, we evaluated Ascore’s independent prognostic performance as a non-invasive biomarker in our clinical cohort (Gulou-Cohort1) using circulating tumor cells detection, achieving an AUC of 0.803. Another clinical cohort (Gulou-Cohort2) consisted of 40 patients undergoing neoadjuvant anti-PD-1 treatment was also examined. Immunohistochemistry of Ascore in these patients revealed its correlation with the pathological response to bladder cancer immunotherapy ( P = 0.004). Impressively, Ascore (AUC = 0.913) surpassed PD-L1 (AUC = 0.662) in forecasting immunotherapy response and indicated better net benefit. In conclusion, our study introduces Ascore as a novel, robust prognostic biomarker for bladder cancer, offering a new tool for enhancing immunotherapy decisions and contributing to the tailored treatment approaches in this field.