Loss of green landscapes due to urban expansion in China

Revealing multi-scale cascading change in land use is crucial for developing urbanization strategies and ecological restoration in China. This study used an integrated assessment of “landscape processes-ecological services” to simulate landscape changes over historical (1995–2020) and climate (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5) scenarios (2020–2100) in China. Moreover, direct and indirect impacts of green landscape loss due to urban expansion were assessed via food production changes. The historical period exhibited a nearly threefold urban expansion, mainly occupying croplands and forest-grasslands. The direct impact of urban expansion on forest-grasslands was more significant than the indirect impact. Between the future scenarios, the growth rate of national grain production significantly differed (SSP5–8.5 > SSP2–4.5 > SSP1–2.6). SSP5–8.5 showed a high increase in grain yield and the largest indirect occupation of forest-grasslands by urban expansion. These findings reveal land use trade-offs in China, offering scientific support for regional land use planning and ecosystem management policies.