US AI export controls on China have limits

Significance However, the open-source nature of much AI development, and China’s mature domestic environment for driving AI development, mean such new measures are unlikely to impede Chinese progress. Impacts China is unlikely to adopt retaliatory measures that directly mirror new US measures in this field, given Beijing’s limited options. A Trump administration would likely shun the kind of cautious dialogue Biden is pursuing with Beijing on AI. Lack of US-China dialogue would impede cooperation on global concerns about AI, notably its environmental impact.