Trend Analysis of HPV Prevalence in Weifang City Using a Bayesian Structural Time Series Model: A Longitudinal Study From 2012 to 2023

The infection with human papillomavirus (HPV), particularly the persistent infection with high-risk HPV, is closely associated with the development of cervical cancer. A total of 81,397 specimens of cervical epithelium were collected in Weifang City from 2012 to 2023. The participants were divided into five age groups and tested for 23 HPV subtypes (13 high-risk and 10 low-risk subtypes) using a commercial kit. The overall infection rate of HPV was 23.78%, with the infection rate of high-risk HPV being 18.36%. The top five most prevalent subtypes were HPV16, 52, 58, 51, and 68. The infection rate of low-risk HPV was 5.42%, with the most common subtypes being HPV53, 81, and 66. Among different age groups, people aged 18-24 years and those aged ≥ 55 years exhibited higher infection rates, which were 33.55% and 26.29%, respectively. The predominant type of infection was single infection, followed by double infection. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the infection rates of HPV and HR-HPV exhibited a downward trend over time (p < 0.05), with a significant turning point identified. Bayesian structural time series model (BSTS model) suggests that human papillomavirus vaccination may have prevented 1,705 cases of infection between 2018 and 2023, equating to a 14.5% reduction in infection rates. This study reveals the characteristics of the age distribution of HPV infection rates and genotypic infections in the region, suggests that HPV vaccination may influence the trend of HPV infection, and provides an epidemiological basis for disease prevention in the region.