Prostate cancer in central and Eastern Europe: a Comprehensive Regional Analysis of Burden, trends, and future projections based on the Global Burden of disease Study (1990-2021)

This study aims to assess the burden of prostate cancer (PCa) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by analyzing historical trends, evaluating the current burden, and forecasting future trends. This study uses data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study spanning 1990-2021 to analyze PCa trends in CEE. We assessed age-standardized rates (ASRs) of PCa to identify trend changes through joinpoint regression analysis, explored regional disparities using QGIS software, and made projections for 2031 using the ARIMA model. Eastern Europe experienced greater changes across health metrics compared to Central Europe, with higher average annual percentage change values for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates. In 2021, Lithuania and Estonia recorded the highest PCa prevalence rates, while Estonia had the highest total percentage change (240.3). Estonia and Latvia also had the highest mortality rates (34.1 and 33.6 per 100,000, respectively). CEE's prevalence rates are projected to remain stable. The findings highlight significant regional disparities in the burden of prostate cancer in CEE. Efforts to address these disparities should focus on enhancing diagnostic programs and treatment access, particularly in Eastern Europe, to reduce the ongoing burden of PCa in the region.