Effects of the timing of childbirth on female labor supply: an analysis using the sequential matching approach

This study estimates the effects of childbirth on female labour supply using Japanese data. The original contributions of our study are twofold. First, we include the preference for having children as a time-varying confounding variable in the effects of childbirth on female labour supply. Second, we apply a dynamic version of the sequential matching approach to analyse the causal effects of childbirth on female labour market outcomes. The results show that childbirth decreases current employment outcomes (participation as regular and non-regular workers) and that this decrease is more pronounced among regular workers than non-regular workers. At the time of childbirth, while the negative effects of childbirth on choosing regular work increase when childbirth age is delayed, the negative effects on choosing non-regular work are slightly decreased by delaying the age of childbirth. Regarding future employment outcomes, childbirth does not affect the probability of choosing non-regular work in the next period, regardless of childbirth age. In contrast, delayed childbirth decreases the probability of choosing regular work in the next period significantly.