Global, Regional, and National Burden of Burns From 1990 to 2021

Burn injuries place a heavy burden on the global health care system. However, data on the burden and trends of this disease remain limited. The aim of this study is to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and disease burden of burns from 1990 to 2021 and to predict their future trends from 2022 to 2036. Data on fire, heat, and hot substance injuries were retrieved from 204 countries and regions worldwide from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 during 1990 to 2021. We analyzed the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) along with age-standardized rates (ASRs) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) at the global, regional, and national levels. Global trends by age, sex, and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) were assessed. Age-standardized prevalence (ASPR), incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR), and DALYs (ASDR) showed significant downward trends. Oceania was the only region that exhibited an increasing trend in the ASIR of burns, whereas all other regions demonstrated a decreasing trend. The 15 to 19 age group had the highest incidence rate of burns, at 172.16 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 109.29-250.17). Socio-Demographic Index negatively correlated with ASMR (ρ= -0.627, P < 0.001) and ASDR (ρ= -0.603, P < 0.001) in the 21 GBD regions. Lesotho, Haiti, Zimbabwe, the Central African Republic, and South Sudan had the largest effective difference. The number of incident burn cases would increase from 9,289,945 in 2022 to 9,445,569 in 2036, whereas the ASIR would decrease from 119.19 in 2022 to 93.20 in 2036. This study provides valuable evidence for formulating burn prevention policies and rational allocation of health care resources.