Inspect the Influence of Socio‐Economic, Land, Water, Physical Capital, and Ecosystem on Land Degradation: In View of COP28

ABSTRACT Land degradation remains a critical barrier to sustainable development, demanding precise identification of its driving forces. This study pursues seven key objectives: assessing the effects of economic and social factors, land and water resource dynamics, physical capital, ecological and biodiversity influences, and forecasting techniques, alongside provincial‐level analyses and scenario‐based predictions. A land degradation index (LDI) is developed to examine how these dimensions have influenced land degradation in China from 2000 to 2023. Using econometric regression, machine learning, and scenario forecasting, the study analyzes annual provincial data to uncover patterns and inform policy. Gross regional product (GRP) initially intensified degradation but showed a mitigating trend after 2010, reflecting improved practices. The rural population consistently contributed to environmental degradation, primarily through agricultural expansion. The impact of soil erosion shifted from negative to positive, suggesting effective conservation. Irrigation remained a significant factor in degradation, especially in arid regions. Surprisingly, afforestation was linked to higher degradation, indicating ecological mismatches. These findings support the need for region‐specific, data‐driven land management strategies. Emphasis is placed on adaptive policy design to mitigate future degradation across diverse socio‐economic and environmental pathways.