动态贝叶斯网络
环境科学
石油泄漏
海洋生态系统
贝叶斯网络
海湾
脆弱性(计算)
极端天气
气象学
海洋学
生态系统
气候学
地理
计算机科学
生态学
环境保护
气候变化
地质学
生物
计算机安全
人工智能
作者
Zengkai Liu,Zhonghao Han,Qi Chen,Xuewei Shi,Qiang Ma,Baoping Cai,Yonghong Liu
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120716
摘要
Oil spills are serious threats to the marine ecosystem. Especially when an oil spill is faced with extreme weather, the consequences might be more severe. Until now, no such researches focus on the risk of these extreme scenarios. This paper proposes a novel dynamic assessment method to quantify the risk of oil spills in extreme winds based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). The physical models of advection, spreading, evaporation, and dispersion are transformed into DBNs, and the vulnerability model is established according to coastline types and socio-economic resources. By integrating all the sub-models, the overall DBN to quantify the dynamic risk of oil spills occurring in extreme winds is obtained. The proposed method is demonstrated by the Laizhou Bay. The developed model is validated by a three-axiom-based approach. Temporal and spatial dynamics of risk caused by oil spills in potential locations could be calculated. Based on the developed DBN, the risk of the Laizhou Bay coast caused by oil spills in annual extreme wind speeds corresponding to different mean recurrence intervals is studied. In addition, the effects of the occurrence time of annual extreme winds are also researched.
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