Evaluating the effects of future urban expansion on ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration under the shared socioeconomic pathways

Assessing the effects of future urban expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for the sustainability of cities worldwide. Nonetheless, evaluating these effects of future urban expansion on ESs remains challenging due to the uncertainties associated with socioeconomic development and the intricate nature of urban expansion. In this research, we initially integrated the localized Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model to project the urban expansion of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA). Subsequently, we quantified the impacts of urban expansion on ESs utilizing the Integrated Valuation of ESs and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The outcomes indicate that the urban land in the YRDUA is projected to expand by 1,020.19–12,282.04 km2 at a growth rate of 3.71–44.67% from 2022 to 2050. Simultaneously, habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), water retention (WR), and air purification (AP) are expected to decline by 0.34–4.24%, 0.48–5.82%, 0.39–4.75% and 0.20–2.45%, correspondingly. Most importantly, the primary cause of ES losses is the conversion of cropland to urban land, accounting for more than 90% of the total ES losses. The results offer crucial contextual insights to support future synergistic development policies for urbanization and ecological conservation in the YRDUA under increased climate change.