Urban Shrinkage in Medium-Sized Cities: Trajectories and Influencing Factors

This study analyzes the shrinkage of medium-sized cities at the county level in China based on data from the fifth (2000), sixth (2010), and seventh (2020) national censuses. By examining the spatial distribution and dynamic trajectories of shrinking cities, the study employs the geographical detector model to explore the influencing factors behind medium-sized city shrinkage. The results indicate that, between 2000 and 2020, more than 57.5% of medium-sized cities experienced shrinkage, with the severity of shrinkage continuously intensifying. Additionally, the spatial agglomeration effect of urban shrinkage has become increasingly pronounced over time. In terms of spatial distribution, standard deviation ellipse analysis reveals a northeast-to-southwest directional trend in the overall distribution of shrinking medium-sized cities. The analysis of influencing factors shows that population structure has the most significant impact on urban shrinkage, with the working-age population being the primary driver. In contrast, economic factors exert relatively weaker effects on urban shrinkage.