Probabilistic risk assessment of Alternaria toxin exposure based on the 7th National Total Diet Study in Ningxia

ObjectiveTo assess the health risks of alternaria toxin exposure from cereals， legumes， vegetables， and fruits among residents in Ningxia.MethodsBased on the alternaria toxin detection results of mixed food samples in Ningxia from the 7th National Total Diet Study and the food consumption survey data of Ningxia in 2024， the distribution of dietary exposure was calculated using a probabilistic assessment method combining bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulation. The exposure risks of Alternaria toxins among Ningxia residents were evaluated by the threshold of toxicological concern （TTC） approach and the Margin of Exposure （MOE） method.ResultsThe average dietary exposure levels of alternariol （AOH）， alternariol monomethyl ether （AME）， tenuazonic acid （TeA）， and tentoxin （TEN） in the general population of Ningxia were 2.76， 2.66， 38.37， 6.83 ng/（kg·BW·d）， respectively. The proportions of the population whose mean exposure levels of AOH and AME exceeded the corresponding TTC values reached 61.70% and 79.20%， respectively， with the highest proportion observed in the 2-7 age group. The cumulative exposure risk assessment showed that the mean hazard index （HI） for combined exposure to AOH and AME was greater than 1 for all gender and age groups， and the total margin of exposure （MoET） was below the acceptable risk threshold of 10 000.ConclusionThe dietary exposure risks of alternaria toxins among Ningxia residents exhibit differential characteristics. The risks of AOH and AME exposure warrant attention， with young children aged 2-7 identified as a highly susceptible population， whereas TeA and TEN currently present no significant health risk.