Disentangling infectiousness and susceptibility by age group using transmission pair data: a study of SARS-CoV-2 household transmission

Abstract Background Differential contributions to transmission across age groups have been reported for many respiratory infections, including SARS-CoV-2. They are crucial for estimating the impact of age-specific interventions. Disentangling these age-dependent contributions remains challenging, as they may reflect differences in contact rates, biological susceptibility, or infectiousness. Aim We aim to jointly estimate age-specific per-contact infectiousness and susceptibility and their effect on the impact of age-specific interventions. Methods The age-specific infectiousness and susceptibility were jointly estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining contact data with transmission pair data (who-infected-whom). We applied this approach to 197,840 self-reported household transmission pairs collected in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using these estimates, we projected the expected impact of school closure and work-from-home measures during the early stages of an epidemic in the absence of other interventions. Results Both infectiousness and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection were lowest in children aged 0-9 years and highest in adults over 30 years old, with 2-to 4.5-fold differences between these groups. Projected impacts of age-specific interventions indicated that school closures would reduce the reproduction number by 8% or 29% when age-specific susceptibility and infectiousness were or were not considered, respectively. Conversely, working-from-home policies would lead to reductions of 41% with and 20% without age-specific infectiousness and susceptibility. Conclusion Our method enables robust estimation of age-specific infectiousness and susceptibility. Accounting for these age heterogeneities is essential for projecting the impact of age-targeted interventions. Our approach is adaptable to other respiratory infections and can guide more tailored public health responses.