AST-to-ALT ratio in the first trimester and the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

Background Aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine transaminase ratio (AST/ALT) has been reported affect the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM), but it is uncertain if it has relationship with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Objectives Our study aimed to investigate the association between AST/ALT ratio in the first trimester and the risk of subsequent development of GDM. Method This prospective cohort study enrolling 870 pregnant women, 204 pregnant women with missing data or liver diseases were excluded, 666 pregnant women were included in this study containing 94 GDM women. Blood samples were collected in the first trimester. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between AST/ALT and GDM. Nomogram was established based on the results of multivariate logistic analysis. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive ability of this nomogram model for GDM. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to examine the clinical net benefit of predictive model. Results AST/ALT ratio (RR:0.228; 95% CI:0.107-0.488) was associated with lower risk of GDM after adjusting for confounding factors. Indicators used in nomogram including AST/ALT, maternal age, preBMI, waist circumference, glucose, triglycerides, high density lipoprotein cholesterol and parity. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of this predictive model was 0.778, 95% CI (0.724, 0.832). Calibration curves for GDM probabilities showed acceptable agreement between nomogram predictions and observations. The DCA curve demonstrated a good positive net benefit in the predictive model. Conclusions The early AST/ALT level of pregnant women negatively correlated with the risk of GDM. The nomogram including AST/ALT at early pregnancy shows good predictive ability for the occurrence of GDM.