Global evaluation of current and future threats to drylands and their vertebrate biodiversity

Abstract Drylands are often overlooked in broad conservation frameworks and development priorities and face increasing threats from human activities. Here we evaluated the formal degree of protection of global drylands, their land vertebrate biodiversity and current threats, and projected human-induced land-use changes to drylands under different future climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Overall, drylands have lower protected-area coverage (12%) compared to non-drylands (21%). Consequently, most dryland vertebrates including many endemic and narrow-ranging species are inadequately protected (0–2% range coverage). Dryland vertebrates are threatened by varied anthropogenic factors—including agricultural and infrastructure development (that is, artificial structures, surfaces, roads and industrial sites). Alarmingly, by 2100 drylands are projected to experience some degree of land conversion in 95–100% of their current natural habitat due to urban, agricultural and alternative energy expansion. This loss of undisturbed dryland regions is expected across different socioeconomic pathways, even under optimistic scenarios characterized by progressive climate policies and moderate socioeconomic trends.