Pancreatic Cyst Features Predict for Future Development of Pancreatic Cancer: Results of a Nested Case-Control Study

Risk factors for pancreatic cancer among patients with pancreatic cysts are incompletely characterized. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate risk factors for development of pancreatic cancer among patients with pancreatic cysts.We conducted a retrospective case-control study of U.S. Veterans with suspected BD-IPMN diagnosis from 1999 to 2013.Age (HR 1.03 per year, 95%CI 1.00-1.06), larger cyst size at cyst diagnosis (HR 1.03 per mm, 95%CI 1.01-1.04), cyst growth rate (HR 1.22 per mm/yr, 95%CI 1.14-1.31), and pancreatic duct dilation (5-9.9 mm, HR 3.78, 95%CI 1.90-7.51; ≥ 10 mm, HR 13.57, 95%CI 5.49-33.53) are significant predictors for pancreatic cancer on multivariable analysis.Age, cyst size, cyst growth rate, and high-risk or worrisome features are associated with higher risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Applying current and developing novel strategies are required to optimize early detection of pancreatic cancer after cyst diagnosis.