Critical systemic risk sources in global lithium-ion battery supply networks: Static and dynamic network perspectives

Due to the indispensable role of electric vehicles (EVs) in achieving carbon neutrality, lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for EVs have attracted considerable attention in the context of a widely distributed raw material supply and cross-border LIB production. Most previous studies have focused on only one specific LIB-related commodity supply, ignoring the intricate dependent relationships among mineral resources, intermediate components, and finished products. To fill this gap, this study employs a multilayer network model to construct the global EV-LIB supply network from 1990 to 2020 and explores critical risk sources from static and dynamic network perspectives. From the static perspective, the results based on the MultiRank algorithm reveal the critical position of countries, which are covered by single-layer-based indicators. The EV-LIB industry is shifting from upstream mineral resources to intermediate components and finished products (EV-LIBs and anodes). From the dynamic perspective, the impacts of risk sources and their risk transmission paths are revealed by the proposed dynamic shock propagation models under two realistic scenarios, i.e., supply restrictions on a specific commodity and blocked export channels. Some unremarkable shocks to a specific upstream commodity are revealed to have a substantial influence on downstream processes. Different effects of improving a country's anti-risk capacity on strengthening the robustness of the trade system are shown. The findings provide anti-risk support for policymakers seeking to hedge supply risks, adjust industrial planning, and ensure industrial safety.