Predicting the Potential Distribution of Endangered and Rare Satyrium Species in China under Climate Change

Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various pharmacodynamic functions. The prediction of potentially suitable habitat of Satyrium species and to analyze their changes, the model MaxEnt niche was applied; furthermore, the receiver operating characteristic curve was applied to analyze accuracy. The results provided an available reference for implementation of long-term conservation and management approaches for the species. Under the current climatic conditions, the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium ciliatum (S. ciliatum) in China is 32.51 × 104 km2, the total suitable habitat area for Satyrium nepalense (S. nepalense) in China is 61.76 × 104 km2, and the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium yunnanense (S. yunnanense) in China is 89.73 × 104 km2. The potential suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China. The major environmental changes influencing the geographical distribution of S. ciliatum were temperature seasonality (Bio4), isothermality (Bio3), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio11). The geographical distribution of S. nepalense was mainly affected by environmental variables like temperature seasonality (Bio4), isothermal environment (Bio3), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19); and the geographical distribution of the species S. yunnanense were mainly affected by the environmental variables such as temperature seasonality (Bio4), isothermality (Bio3) and lower temperature of the coldest month (Bio6). The distribution range of Satyrium’s extended with global warming increased, in both situations’ emissions of greenhouse gases with lower concentration (SSP1-2.6) and the emission of greenhouse gases with higher concentration (SSP5-8.5). According to the study, the distribution of suitable habitat would shift with change to higher elevated areas in the coming time.