Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of carbon emissions from municipal solid waste treatment in China

Reducing carbon emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment is non-negligible for China to meet its "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" targets. It is critical to objectively evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of carbon emissions from MSW treatment. This study estimates the carbon emissions from MSW treatment across 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020. The joint approach LMDI-PDA model is further used to refine the impact of policy on carbon emission changes from technical and efficiency perspectives, while considering the socio-economic factors. The results showed that carbon emissions from MSW treatment grew significantly until peaking at 202.05Mt CO2e in 2017 and then stabilized, finally dropping to 165.10 Mt CO2e in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19. Compared with the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the MSW emissions intensity declined significantly during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating the effective implementation of waste emission control measures. Furthermore, the slowdown in the growth of national emissions was primarily driven by technological advances in waste treatment. Technical efficiency change effect, MSW generation intensity effect, economic scale effect, and population scale effect impeded national emissions decline. Since the performance of various drivers varied greatly in different provinces, a cluster analysis was conducted to provide policy recommendations in provinces with similar characteristics. Both the methods and results of this study can provide better decision-making support for national and provincial carbon emissions control policies targeting MSW treatment.