[Analysis on influencing factors of HBV intrauterine transmission based on integration of decision tree model and logistic regression model].

Objective: To investigate the influencing factors of HBV intrauterine transmission and their interaction effects by integrating logistic regression model and Chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree model. Methods: A total of 689 pairs of HBsAg-positive mothers and their neonates in the obstetrics department of the Third People's Hospital of Taiyuan from 2007 to 2013 were enrolled, and the basic information of mothers and their neonates were obtained by questionnaire survey and medical record review, such as the general demographic characteristics, gestational week and delivery mode. HBV DNA and HBV serological markers of the mothers and newborns were detected by fluorescence quantitative PCR and electrochemiluminescence immunoassay respectively. The CHAID decision tree model and unconditional logistic regression analysis were used to explore the factors influencing HBV intrauterine transmission in neonates of HBsAg-positive mothers. Results: Among the 689 neonates, the incidence of HBV intrauterine transmission was 11.47% (79/689). After adjusted for confounding factors, the first and second logistic multivariate analysis showed that cesarean delivery was a protective factor for HBV intrauterine transmission (OR=0.25, 95%CI: 0.14-0.43; OR=0.27, 95%CI: 0.15-0.46); both models indicated that maternal HBeAg positivity and HBV DNA load ≥2×105 IU/ml before delivery were risk factors of HBV intrauterine transmission (OR=3.89, 95%CI: 2.32-6.51; OR=3.48, 95%CI: 2.12-5.71), respectively. The CHAID decision tree model screened three significant factors influencing HBV intrauterine transmission, the most significant one was maternal HBeAg status, followed by delivery mode and maternal HBV DNA load. There were interactions between maternal HBeAg status and delivery modes, as well as delivery mode and maternal HBV DNA load before delivery. The rate of HBV intrauterine transmission in newborns of HBeAg-positive mothers by vaginal delivery increased from 19.08% to 29.37%; among HBeAg-positive mothers with HBV DNA ≥2×105 IU/ml, the rate of HBV intrauterine transmission increased to 33.33% in the newborns by vaginal delivery. Conclusions: Maternal HBeAg positivity,maternal HBV DNA ≥2×105 IU/ml and vaginal delivery could be risk factors for HBV intrauterine transmission in newborns. Interaction effects were found between maternal HBeAg positivity and vaginal delivery, as well as vaginal delivery and high maternal HBV DNA load. Logistic regression model and the CHAID decision tree model can be used in conjunction to identify the high-risk populations and develop preventive strategies accurately.目的： 结合logistic回归与χ2自动交互检测法（CHAID）决策树模型探讨乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）宫内传播的影响因素及其相互关系。 方法： 选取2007-2013年在太原市第三人民医院产科分娩的689对HBsAg阳性母亲及其新生儿，通过问卷调查和病历查阅获得母亲及其新生儿的一般人口学特征、母亲孕周及分娩方式等基线资料，采用荧光定量PCR和电化学发光法分别检测母亲及其新生儿血清HBV DNA及HBV血清学标志物，通过构建CHAID决策树模型和非条件logistic回归模型，探讨HBV宫内传播的影响因素。 结果： 689例新生儿中，HBV宫内传播率为11.47%（79/689）。控制潜在混杂因素后，logistic多因素模型1与多因素模型2分析结果均显示，剖宫产是新生儿发生HBV宫内传播的保护因素（OR=0.25，95%CI：0.14~0.43；OR=0.27，95%CI：0.15~0.46）；母亲分娩前HBeAg阳性以及HBV DNA水平≥2×105 IU/ml是新生儿发生HBV宫内传播的危险因素（OR=3.89，95%CI：2.32~6.51；OR=3.48，95%CI：2.12~5.71）。CHAID决策树模型共筛选出3个HBV宫内传播的影响因素，其中，母亲分娩前HBeAg状态是最为重要的影响因素，其次为分娩方式和母亲HBV DNA水平；母亲分娩前HBeAg与分娩方式、分娩方式与母亲分娩前HBV DNA水平间存在交互作用，HBeAg阳性且行阴道分娩的母亲所生新生儿HBV宫内传播率由19.08%增至29.37%，行阴道分娩和HBV DNA水平≥2×105 IU/ml的HBeAg阳性母亲，其新生儿HBV宫内传播率升至33.33%。 结论： 母亲分娩前HBeAg阳性、HBV DNA水平≥2×105 IU/ml和阴道分娩是新生儿发生HBV宫内传播的危险因素；母亲分娩前HBeAg阳性与阴道分娩、阴道分娩与母亲HBV DNA高载量之间存在交互作用。logistic回归与CHAID决策树模型可互为补充，能更好地识别HBV高危人群，有利于准确地制定预防策略。.