Democratic Drain: The Effect of Democratic Backsliding on Migration Intentions

To what extent does the perception of democratic backsliding motivate international migration? Drawing on global survey data, we first show that citizens dissatisfied with the state of democracy in their country are significantly more likely to express a desire to migrate. Leveraging variation in survey fielding dates relative to elections, we show that deconsolidating elections can act as catalysts, activating migration intentions particularly among those citizens most concerned with democratic freedoms and institutions. These findings suggest that elections can encourage the selective exit of democratically committed citizens, potentially contributing to a self-reinforcing cycle of democratic erosion in countries of origin.