Uneven Decoupling in Global Agriculture: Productivity Growth, Emission Intensity and Persistent Inequality

Improving agricultural productivity while reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a central challenge for sustainable development. Although recent studies suggest that emission intensity has declined in many countries, far less is known about how evenly such “decoupling” has occurred across the world. This study examines global patterns of agricultural productivity growth and greenhouse gas emission intensity from an inequality perspective. Using harmonized cross-country data from the World Bank and Our World in Data covering up to 175 countries over the period 1990–2020, we analyze country-level decoupling patterns and quantify inequality in agricultural emission intensity using the Theil index. Total inequality is further decomposed into between- and within-income-group components to assess the sources of global disparities. The results yield three main findings. First, although many countries have achieved productivity growth alongside declining emission intensity, decoupling outcomes are highly heterogeneous, even among countries at similar income levels. Second, global inequality in agricultural emission intensity remains persistently high and exhibits substantial fluctuations over time, with no clear evidence of long-run convergence. Third, decomposition results show that approximately 99% of total inequality is driven by disparities within income groups rather than differences between them. These findings challenge income-based narratives of sustainable agricultural transitions and highlight the central role of country-specific factors, institutional capacity, and technological diffusion in shaping environmental performance in agriculture.