Natural History of Small Gastric Subepithelial Lesions Less than 20 mm: A Multicenter Retrospective Observational Study (NUTSHELL20 Study)

Background and Aim: Small gastric subepithelial lesions (SELs) are sometimes encountered in daily esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) practice, but whether once-annual or twice-annual endoscopy can provide sufficient follow-up remains unclear. Because follow-up based on small-SEL characteristics is important, this study clarified the natural history of gastric SELs less than 20 mm. Methods: This retrospective multicenter observation study conducted at 24 Japanese hospitals during April 2000 to March 2020 examined small gastric SELs of ≤20 mm diameter. The primary outcome was the rate of size increase of those SELs detected using EGD, with growth times assessed irrespective of SEL pathological diagnoses. Results: We examined 824 cases with tumors of 1–5 mm diameter in 298 (36.2%) cases, 6–10 mm in 344 (41.7%) cases, 11–15 mm in 112 (13.6%) cases, and 16–20 mm in 70 (8.50%) cases. An increase of small gastric SELs was observed in 70/824 patients (8.5%). The SELs larger than 6 mm increased, even after 10 years. No-change and increasing groups had no significantly different malignant findings at diagnosis. In cases of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), internal cystic change in endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) is a risk factor for an increased tumor size. The predictive tumor growth cutoff size at initial diagnosis was 13.5 mm. Conclusions: Small gastric SELs less than 20 mm have an approximately 8.5% chance of increase. Predictive markers for GIST growth are tumor size ≥13.5 mm and internal cystic change in EUS.