Ensemble model-based analysis of the effects of environmental factors on the distribution and chemical composition of Asparagus cochinchinensis (Lour.) Merr.

Asparagus cochinchinensis (Lour.) Merr., is a traditional Chinese herbal medicine with pharmacological effects such as cough and asthma suppression, anti-inflammation, and immunity enhancement. Currently, as a wild resource it is scarce and its distribution has not been well defined. Especially in the context of climate change, the effect of the environment on its chemical composition is also unknown. In this study, we constructed an ensemble model of species distribution for A. cochinchinensis to predict its current and future potential suitable habitat areas, and explored the relationship between its chemical composition and key environmental factor using statistical analysis. The results showed that the Mean Diurnal Range (Bio2) contributed 67.74% to the model and was the key environmental factor influencing the distribution of A. cochinchinensis. The current habitat of A. cochinchinensis was mainly distributed in south-central and southeastern China, such as Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. Under the influence of climate change, its potential habitat would gradually decrease, especially in highly suitable areas. The results of chemical analysis showed that the quality of A. cochinchinensis was higher in Neijiang than other locations, which might be related to the fact that Bio2 in Neijiang was most suitable for growth. In addition, the correlation results showed that 12 out of 36 chemical indicators had significant correlation with Bio2, and all of them except protein and Tyr had significantly negative correlation with Bio2, indicating that the environment affected the biosynthesis of chemical composition of A. cochinchinensis. The results of the study provide theoretical guidance for the cultivation, management, and sustainable use of A. cochinchinensis resources, as well as a theoretical basis for their quality improvement.