Driving risk prevention in usage-based insurance services based on interpretable machine learning and telematics data

Usage-based insurance (UBI) adjusts premiums based on an individual policyholder’s dynamic risk evaluation, incentivizing policyholders to maintain safe driving behavior in pursuit of a lower insurance premium. Although post-trip interventions can improve driving behavior significantly, most interventions do not provide risk mitigation strategies tailored to long-term driving behavior. This study proposes a novel approach for driving risk prevention in UBI services, providing risk analysis services and tailoring driving suggestions for policyholders. Advanced prediction models and model interpretation methods were adopted to assess and analyze personal driving risks, respectively. A multi-objective counterfactual model was developed to generate risk mitigation strategies for policyholders. The significance of driving behavior in risk mitigation and its actionability were assessed to provide realistic and actionable suggestions for policyholders. The case study, based on a real dataset from an insurance company in China, showed that the proposed approach can be directly embedded in the existing UBI service framework to provide personalized feedback and services to policyholders.