What's Not to Like? Preference Asymmetry in the False Consensus Effect

Prior research has shown that individuals are often susceptible to a false consensus effect, whereby they overestimate the extent to which others share their opinions. In three studies, we show that the strength of the false consensus effect is moderated by the valence of one’s own opinion, such that overestimation of population consensus is greater when an individual likes an alternative as compared to when she or he dislikes it. Further, we show that this moderation of false consensus is driven by the availability of countervalence attributes, that is, disliked attributes in liked alternatives and liked attributes in disliked alternatives. We discuss theoretical and practical implications of these results. Individuals often need to predict other people’s likes and dislikes (Gershoff, Broniarczyk, and West 2001; Hoch 1987). For example, when people offer advice to friends about movies, buy a gift for a loved one, or recommend a restaurant to a colleague, they first have to assess the recipient’s likes and dislikes. A large body of research indicates