Predictive model of pollutant loads discharged by combined sewer overflows

Abstract Effective protection of receiving waters on urbanized areas requires knowledge about the amount of pollutants contained in discharged wastewater, inter alia by combined sewer overflows (CSOs). This involves the need to conduct long-lasting, costly and technically complex studies on the quantity and quality of discharged sewage. Loads of pollutants emitted by CSOs depend on many factors, inter alia on very variable characteristics of precipitations. This paper attempts to develop a simplified predictive model of pollutant loads for two basic parameters: total suspended solids (TSS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD). Studies were conducted in Lodz (Poland) between 2012 and 2015 on an urban catchment. Obtained data were analysed using the Pearson's correlation and principal component analysis method which enabled selection of the key parameters forming the model (depth and maximum intensity of rainfall and CSO volume). A good fit for the developed model was obtained (R2 = 0.79 for TSS and R2 = 0.80 for COD). The model was verified for two other catchments in the same city. Results indicate that the load of TSS and COD can be sufficiently precisely determined by using the proposed model for the studied city without the need to perform long-term continuous quality research of wastewater.