The Role of Referent Predictability in Pronoun Production: Insights From a Bayesian Meta-Analysis

While it is known that speakers tend to use more reduced forms for more predictable words or phrases, it is unclear whether the same happens at the referential level: the influence of referent predictability on pronoun production remains a contentious issue, with divergent findings reported in the literature. To address this inconsistency, we carried out a Bayesian meta-analysis of the current literature on the relationship between referent predictability and pronoun production. Our meta-analysis covers twenty primary peer-reviewed studies, encompassing twenty-six experiments across eight languages. We find stronger evidence for a small positive effect of referent predictability on pronoun usage, as opposed to the alternative hypothesis of no effect or a negative effect. As the first comprehensive synthesis of available evidence on this topic, our study offers insights into pronoun production and identifies promising avenues for future research: focus on typologically diverse languages, on conditions where a variety of referring expressions are expected or where the effect of predictability is more likely to appear, and others. Finally, we also advocate for the use of meta-analysis as a tool for theoretical linguistics.