Dynamic monitoring of aboveground biomass in inner Mongolia grasslands over the past 23 Years using GEE and analysis of its driving forces

Aboveground biomass (AGB) in grasslands directly reflects the net primary productivity, making it a sensitive indicator of grassland resource quality and ecological degradation. Accurately estimating AGB over large regions to reveal long-term AGB evolution trends remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we divided Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) grasslands into three study regions based on their spatial distribution of grassland types. We combined remote sensing data with ground-based sample data collected over the past 19 years from 6114 field plots using the Google Earth Engine platform. We constructed random forest (RF) and traditional regression AGB inversion models for each region and selected the best-performing model through accuracy assessment to estimate IMAR grassland AGB for the period 2000–2022. We also examined the trends in AGB changes and identified the driving forces affecting IMAR grasslands through the application of Theil-Sen estimation, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and the Geodetector model. The main findings are as follows: (1) Compared with the univariate parametric traditional regression model, the AGB monitoring accuracy of the multivariate non-parametric RF model in the three study regions increased by 5.94%, 5.08% and 19.14%, respectively. (2) The average AGB per unit area of IMAR grasslands from 2000 to 2022 was 731.41 kg/hm2, with alpine meadow having the highest average AGB (1271.70 kg/hm2) and temperate grassland desertification having the lowest (469.06 kg/hm2). IMAR grasslands exhibited an overall increasing trend in AGB over the past 23 years (6.01 kg/hm2•yr), with the increasing trend covering 83.52% of the grassland area and the decreasing trend covering 16.48%. (3) Spatially, IMAR grassland AGB showed a gradual decline from northeast to southwest and exhibited an increasing trend with increasing longitude (45.423 kg/hm2 per degree) and latitude (71.9 kg/hm2 per degree). (4) Meteorological factors were the most significant factors affecting IMAR grassland AGB, with precipitation (five-year average q value of 0.61) being the most prominent. In the western part of IMAR, where precipitation is consistently limited throughout the year, the primary drivers of influence were human activities, with particular emphasis on the number of livestock (with a five-year average q value of 0.44). It is evident that reducing human activity disturbance and pressure in fragile grassland areas or implementing near-natural restoration measures will be beneficial for the sustainable development of grassland ecosystems. The results of this research hold substantial reference importance for the protection and restoration of grasslands, the supervision and administration of grassland resources, as well as the development of policies related to grassland management.